I mostly agree.

1. On Biden and Ukraine: Russia's tenacity and resistance has been underestimated while their likelihood to use a nuclear weapon has been overestimated, which probably explains why we didn't give them more weapons.

2. It seems indeed that Syria's collapse was pure luck and that no one had seen al-Jolani coming, which is wild, a costly failure to everyone involved.

3. The cost of losing Syria for Iran and Russia is indeed immense, imho, much bigger than losing in Ukraine would have been. But thats what they get for leading arms conflicts with ideological rather than economic reasons.

4. Indeed, al-Jolani's plan is probably likelier to be political rather than religious or ideological, especially since he left al-qaeda in 2016. But let's see. I've never seen an islamist growing moderate over time, but I am willing to be surprised even though I think we can expect something of the likes of what we have seen in Egypt with Morsi.

5. On HTS and Erdogan: I don't know. Turkey cannot afford to fight with its new neighbor but then neither can Syria.

I think we're getting into a phase where peace is what everyone wants now, on one hand because the fighting has been going on for too long and on the other because no one can afford continued military support.

I still think the Saudis are behind Al-Jolani.